9 Kelsea Ave · Meredith, NH 03226

$449,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1880 0.27 ac lot $313/sqft · 12% below area Est $580k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 10-12! WALK to the sugar sand beach on Lake Winnipesaukee where you can enjoy swimming, a boat launch, public docks, basketball courts, and a playground. Welcome to this beautifully maintained, truly turn key home in the heart of the Lakes Region. Filled with warmth, charm, and natural sunlight, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, character, and an unbeatable location. Inside you will find gorgeous restored wood floors, abundant windows that fill the home with natural light, and a layout that feels both welcoming and functional. With three bedrooms and two baths, the home has been lovingly cared for and thoughtfully updated over time while maintaining its classic charm. A sliding door leads to a deck where you can relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Step outside and you will discover immaculate grounds filled with established perennial gardens and a variety of fruit bearing plants including apple trees, peach trees, blueberries, grapes, and red currants. It is a truly special outdoor setting that offers beauty throughout the seasons. Location is everything and this property delivers. You can also stroll to nearby shops and restaurants, making it easy to enjoy everything this wonderful community has to offer. Located in the desirable Inter Lakes School District, this home also offers the convenience of public sewer and the peace of mind of a year and 1/2 old roof. Whether you are looking for a year round residence or a Lakes Region getaway, this property offers charm, comfort, and a location that is hard to beat.

Key facts

• Abundant windows
• Perennial gardens
• Deck

Tags

• RESTORED WOOD FLOORS
• ABUNDANT WINDOWS
• SLIDING DOOR
• DECK
• IMMACULATE GROUNDS
• PERENNIAL GARDENS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (49.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (56.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (56.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 2.2% in Meredith — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#49 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Inter-Lakes School District (rural): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #50 of 98 in NH (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandwich Central School (math 50% / reading 70%, grade B-, #42 of 263 statewide, top 19%, 75 students, 19% FRL); Inter-Lakes Middle School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade D-, #42 of 96 statewide, top 44%, 150 students, 26% FRL); Inter-Lakes High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #37 of 90 statewide, top 49%, 289 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 301 units permitted in Belknap County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Belknap County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $223k; list at $449k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $195,000 (56.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.98%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 19.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $580,450
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -22.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Chase Cir	0.16mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,472 (+3%)	6mo	$825,000	$560	79
122 Coe Hill Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-1%)	1mo	$626,000	$441	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-53,440
• Equity at exit: $172,691

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-42,526
• Equity at exit: $245,337

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03226

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 19.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,044/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-1,255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,538

Max offer price $227,325

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,001	-5% $-1,128	+0% $-1,255	+5% $-1,382	+10% $-1,509
Rent	-10% $-1,409	-5% $-1,332	+0% $-1,255	+5% $-1,178	+10% $-1,101
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,029	-0.5pp $-1,141	base $-1,255	+0.5pp $-1,371	+1.0pp $-1,490

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Lake Shore Dr Unit F Moultonborough, NH	2.0	2.0	880	$1,950	$2.22	45d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $449,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $449,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $449,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $449,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $479,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,000 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    price $479,000 1588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1588 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 10-12! WALK to the sugar sand beach on Lake Winnipesaukee where you can enjoy swimming, a boat launch, public docks, basketball courts, and a playground. Welcome to this beautifully maintained, truly turn key home in the heart of the Lakes Region. Filled with warmth, charm, and natural sunlight, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, character, and an unbeatable location. Inside you will find gorgeous restored wood floors, abundant windows that fill the home with natural light, and a layout that feels both welcoming and functional. With three bedrooms and two baths, the home has been lovingly cared for and thoughtfully updated over time while maintaining its classic charm. A sliding door leads to a deck where you can relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Step outside and you will discover immaculate grounds filled with established perennial gardens and a variety of fruit bearing plants including apple trees, peach trees, blueberries, grapes, and red currants. It is a truly special outdoor setting that offers beauty throughout the seasons. Location is everything and this property delivers. You can also stroll to nearby shops and restaurants, making it easy to enjoy everything this wonderful community has to offer. Located in the desirable Inter Lakes School District, this home also offers the convenience of public sewer and the peace of mind of a year and 1/2 old roof. Whether you are looking for a year round residence or a Lakes Region getaway, this property offers charm, comfort, and a location that is hard to beat.

19. 2026-04-19
    price $519,000 1588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1588 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 10-12! WALK to the sugar sand beach on Lake Winnipesaukee where you can enjoy swimming, a boat launch, public docks, basketball courts, and a playground. Welcome to this beautifully maintained, truly turn key home in the heart of the Lakes Region. Filled with warmth, charm, and natural sunlight, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, character, and an unbeatable location. Inside you will find gorgeous restored wood floors, abundant windows that fill the home with natural light, and a layout that feels both welcoming and functional. With three bedrooms and two baths, the home has been lovingly cared for and thoughtfully updated over time while maintaining its classic charm. A sliding door leads to a deck where you can relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Step outside and you will discover immaculate grounds filled with established perennial gardens and a variety of fruit bearing plants including apple trees, peach trees, blueberries, grapes, and red currants. It is a truly special outdoor setting that offers beauty throughout the seasons. Location is everything and this property delivers. You can also stroll to nearby shops and restaurants, making it easy to enjoy everything this wonderful community has to offer. Located in the desirable Inter Lakes School District, this home also offers the convenience of public sewer and the peace of mind of a year and 1/2 old roof. Whether you are looking for a year round residence or a Lakes Region getaway, this property offers charm, comfort, and a location that is hard to beat.

20. 2026-04-02
    price $559,000 1588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1588 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 10-12! WALK to the sugar sand beach on Lake Winnipesaukee where you can enjoy swimming, a boat launch, public docks, basketball courts, and a playground. Welcome to this beautifully maintained, truly turn key home in the heart of the Lakes Region. Filled with warmth, charm, and natural sunlight, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, character, and an unbeatable location. Inside you will find gorgeous restored wood floors, abundant windows that fill the home with natural light, and a layout that feels both welcoming and functional. With three bedrooms and two baths, the home has been lovingly cared for and thoughtfully updated over time while maintaining its classic charm. A sliding door leads to a deck where you can relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Step outside and you will discover immaculate grounds filled with established perennial gardens and a variety of fruit bearing plants including apple trees, peach trees, blueberries, grapes, and red currants. It is a truly special outdoor setting that offers beauty throughout the seasons. Location is everything and this property delivers. You can also stroll to nearby shops and restaurants, making it easy to enjoy everything this wonderful community has to offer. Located in the desirable Inter Lakes School District, this home also offers the convenience of public sewer and the peace of mind of a year and 1/2 old roof. Whether you are looking for a year round residence or a Lakes Region getaway, this property offers charm, comfort, and a location that is hard to beat.

21. 2026-03-06
    listed $579,000 Active 1588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1588 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 10-12! WALK to the sugar sand beach on Lake Winnipesaukee where you can enjoy swimming, a boat launch, public docks, basketball courts, and a playground. Welcome to this beautifully maintained, truly turn key home in the heart of the Lakes Region. Filled with warmth, charm, and natural sunlight, this inviting property offers the perfect blend of comfort, character, and an unbeatable location. Inside you will find gorgeous restored wood floors, abundant windows that fill the home with natural light, and a layout that feels both welcoming and functional. With three bedrooms and two baths, the home has been lovingly cared for and thoughtfully updated over time while maintaining its classic charm. A sliding door leads to a deck where you can relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Step outside and you will discover immaculate grounds filled with established perennial gardens and a variety of fruit bearing plants including apple trees, peach trees, blueberries, grapes, and red currants. It is a truly special outdoor setting that offers beauty throughout the seasons. Location is everything and this property delivers. You can also stroll to nearby shops and restaurants, making it easy to enjoy everything this wonderful community has to offer. Located in the desirable Inter Lakes School District, this home also offers the convenience of public sewer and the peace of mind of a year and 1/2 old roof. Whether you are looking for a year round residence or a Lakes Region getaway, this property offers charm, comfort, and a location that is hard to beat.

22. 2022-03-03
    soldstatus $223,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,044 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,416 · $535/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,372/yr (+$281/mo · 110.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$3,044
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$23,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,723
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Inter-Lakes School District
• NCES district ID: 3303960
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,674
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3844
• State rank: #50 of 98 in NH

Livability — Meredith

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #8561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 998

Population outlook (Belknap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,702 people
• By 2030: 60,353 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 58,264 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 54,533 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 45,622 · -24.8%
• By 2100: 33,772 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 7% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Belknap

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.1% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Current HPI: 384.1938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+114.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $479,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $519,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $559,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $579,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $223,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,044 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.