305 A Grosh Ave

Dayton, NV 89403

$185,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 160 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,546/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $131/mo
• Annual: $1,572/yr
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#51 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lyon County School District (town): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #14 of 17 in NV (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lyon County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $185k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.6% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.