51 Akers Hollow Rd

Van Lear, KY 41265

$70,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 508 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $846/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $178/mo
• Annual: $2,131/yr
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.94%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($846 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 508 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnson County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #103 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 338 students, 69% FRL); Johnson County Middle School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 475 students, 61% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.
• Johnson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $70k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 508 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.