51 Akers Hollow Rd · Van Lear, KY 41265

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 506 Days on market

0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a spacious . 60-acre lot. This cozy residence offers a wonderful opportunity for those looking to put their personal touch on a property with great potential. Fenced yard provides ample space for gardening or other outdoor activities. While the home does need some improvements, its classic charm and solid structure make it a perfect canvas for your creative vision.

Key facts

• Gardening space
• Fenced yard
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• FENCED YARD
• GARDENING SPACE
• SOLID STRUCTURE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Fenced yard (type: other); Rural and mountain views; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (including bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($846 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnson County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #103 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 338 students, 69% FRL); Johnson County Middle School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 475 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 506 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $70k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 506 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.94%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-13
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $14,625
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41265

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $846 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $621

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $197	+0% $178	+5% $158	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $144	+0% $178	+5% $211	+10% $244
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $195	base $178	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 506 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 505 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 504 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 503 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 501 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 500 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 497 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 496 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 495 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 491 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 490 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 489 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 488 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 487 DOM
15. 2025-07-15
    status Active
16. 2025-07-14
    status Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a spacious . 60-acre lot. This cozy residence offers a wonderful opportunity for those looking to put their personal touch on a property with great potential. Fenced yard provides ample space for gardening or other outdoor activities. While the home does need some improvements, its classic charm and solid structure make it a perfect canvas for your creative vision.

17. 2025-07-08
    historical
18. 2025-05-09
    price $70,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a spacious . 60-acre lot. This cozy residence offers a wonderful opportunity for those looking to put their personal touch on a property with great potential. Fenced yard provides ample space for gardening or other outdoor activities. While the home does need some improvements, its classic charm and solid structure make it a perfect canvas for your creative vision.

19. 2025-05-09
    price $70,000

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a spacious . 60-acre lot. This cozy residence offers a wonderful opportunity for those looking to put their personal touch on a property with great potential. Fenced yard provides ample space for gardening or other outdoor activities. While the home does need some improvements, its classic charm and solid structure make it a perfect canvas for your creative vision.

20. 2025-01-21
    listed $75,000 Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a spacious . 60-acre lot. This cozy residence offers a wonderful opportunity for those looking to put their personal touch on a property with great potential. Fenced yard provides ample space for gardening or other outdoor activities. While the home does need some improvements, its classic charm and solid structure make it a perfect canvas for your creative vision.

21. 2025-01-20
    listed $75,000 Active
22. 2006-11-03
    soldstatus $34,000
23. 2003-10-07
    soldstatus $20,000
24. 2003-03-04
    soldstatus $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$267/yr (+$22/mo · 79.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$812
• − Management: −$812
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $1,087
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$261
• After-tax cash flow: $1,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson County
• NCES district ID: 2103060
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $34,508
• Composite: 25.49/100
• National rank: #7441
• State rank: #103 of 165 in KY

Livability — Van Lear

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Van Lear, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,114

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,330 people
• By 2030: 21,570 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 19,849 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 18,204 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 14,588 · -34.7%
• By 2100: 11,127 · -50.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.7) · D 14.0% · R 84.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -70.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.7 2020: R+67.1 2016: R+71.0 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.84%
• Current HPI: 236.5048
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+225.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-15 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-07-14 Relisted — EKAR
• 2025-07-08 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $70,000 EKAR
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $70,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-01-21 Listed $75,000 EKAR
• 2025-01-20 Listed $75,000 ImagineMLS
• 2006-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2019): $335 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.