3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,216 sqft ·
Built 1995
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,464/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$341
Tax + insurance
−$108
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$307
Net cashflow
$707/mo
Annual
$8,489/yr
Cap rate
19.35%
Cash-on-cash
46.64%
DSCR
3.08
1% rule
2.25%
Cash to close
$18,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Alhambra High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #281 of 381 statewide, top 75%, 2,282 students, 86% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: kitchen cabinets
— slight wear
Minor: bathroom fixtures
— slight wear
CashFlowRE · CFR-0XM3879WCE2WWP
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29