Plan 1604 Plan

Round Rock, TX 78665

$302,995F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 411 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,371/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,952
• Tax + insurance: −$620
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-700/mo
• Annual: $-8,394/yr
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.05%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $104,221

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $303k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-700 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 411 days — a 12% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#56 in TX, #2,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 450 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Round Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 411 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.