Plan 1604 Plan · Round Rock, TX 78665

$302,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · SingleFamily · 411 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Kitchen island
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• SWIMMING POOL

🏗️ New construction. The $302,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $372,217.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $303k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-700 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Round Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#56 in TX, #2,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 450 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 411 days — a 12% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,061 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 411 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.05%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,217
• List price: $302,995
• Delta: -18.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3900 Tufino Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (+7%)	1mo	$334,000	$194	77
4429 Venticano Pl	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,733 (+8%)	11mo	$350,000	$202	70
5764 Toscana Trce	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+1%)	17mo	$373,000	$231	54
4923 Mozzafiato Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,702 (+6%)	10mo	$348,709	$205	51
5827 San Savino Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (+2%)	11mo	$346,000	$211	51
4817 Mozzafiato Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,655 (+3%)	12mo	$351,127	$212	48
4909 Teverola Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,705 (+6%)	7mo	$355,000	$208	46
4833 Mozzafiato Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-4%)	14mo	$350,632	$227	44
6045 Teodoro Bnd	0.57mi	4/3.0	1,843 (+15%)	1mo	$379,000	$206	44
3611 Sanza Way	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (+4%)	18mo	$381,131	$228	43
3955 La Contenta Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (-11%)	10mo	$319,000	$224	35
4344 Contrail Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+11%)	17mo	$458,990	$258	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-111,780
• Equity at exit: $55,499

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-181,408
• Equity at exit: $32,183

Cash invested: $104,221 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78665

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 450
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,952
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$465 /mo · $5,583/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,256

Max offer price $270,994

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,054
• Closing costs: $11,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3928 Tufino Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,300	$1.40	24d	1	0.16mi
6060 Teodoro Bnd Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1966	$2,300	$1.17	43d	1	0.57mi
3914 La Contenta Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2229	$2,450	$1.10	43d	1	0.63mi
6508 Cetone Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,095	$1.21	20d	1	0.64mi
4937 Morese Palace Trl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2210	$2,395	$1.08	43d	1	0.77mi
3508 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2203	$2,500	$1.13	7d	1	0.78mi
3416 De Soto Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	1917	$2,500	$1.30	43d	1	0.88mi
4305 Garden Point Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1760	$2,704	$1.54	1d	10	0.88mi
6901 County Road 110 Round Rock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,285	$2.22	1d	34	0.89mi
865 Limmer Loop Hutto, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1752	$3,099	$1.77	1d	59	1.31mi
3018 Diego Dr Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2023	$2,395	$1.18	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $302,995 Active 411 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $302,995 Active 410 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $302,995 Active 409 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $302,995 Active 408 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $302,995 Active 406 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $302,995 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $302,995 Active 401 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $302,995 Active 400 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $302,995 Active 397 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $302,995 Active 396 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $302,995 Active 395 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $302,995 Active 394 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $302,995 Active 393 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    price $307,995 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

15. 2026-04-10
    price $302,995 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

16. 2026-03-24
    price $312,995 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

17. 2026-02-18
    price $317,995 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

18. 2026-02-09
    price $314,995 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

19. 2025-12-17
    price $307,995 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

20. 2025-10-28
    price $312,995 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

21. 2025-07-28
    price $308,995 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

22. 2025-05-03
    listed $304,995 Active 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Dedicated laundry room * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Kitchen island * Den * Spacious great room * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Split-bedroom layout * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,850
• − Property taxes: −$5,583
• − Insurance: −$1,861
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,276
• − Management: −$2,276
• − Depreciation: −$10,828
• Taxable loss: −$15,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,654
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

Livability — Round Rock

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #2184

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Round Rock, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 184,922
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 66,171
• Household income: $122,680
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2036.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.58%
• Current HPI: 179.7075
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $307,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $302,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $312,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $317,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $314,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $307,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $312,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $308,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-03 Listed $304,995 Zillow