Bedford A Plan

Mount Juliet, TN 37122

$267,606F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 774 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,654/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,133
• Tax + insurance: −$678
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-714/mo
• Annual: $-8,564/yr
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.52%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $113,864

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-714 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (0.8% below list).
• It's been on market 774 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#48 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wilson County (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #10 of 139 in TN (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elzie D Patton Elementary School (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #139 of 952 statewide, top 16%, 469 students, 0% FRL); Mt. Juliet Middle School (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #49 of 333 statewide, top 15%, 1,022 students, 0% FRL); Mt. Juliet High School (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #41 of 332 statewide, top 15%, 1,633 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1531 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,927 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilson County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.8% in Mount Juliet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 774 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.