2016 Lake Morena Dr

Campo, CA 91906

$422,400D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,938/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,215
• Tax + insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $-349/mo
• Annual: $-4,182/yr
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.54%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $118,272

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $422k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $294k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-834 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,185 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute D-.
• Mountain Empire Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #438 of 517 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $58k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $422k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.