436 Main St

Ketchikan, AK 99901

$1,685,000B

33 bd · 31.9 ba · 21,400 sqft · Built 1927 · MultiFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $24,920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,836
• Tax + insurance: −$2,808
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,233
• Net cashflow: $8,042/mo
• Annual: $96,506/yr
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.45%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $471,800

Investor read

• This is a 11 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.69M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($97k/yr) — positive. Per door: $731/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $1.69M).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.66M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.66M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AK, #3,743 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $472k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.7% in Ketchikan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.