411 Creekmeadow Ln

Lewisville, TX 75067

$99,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$397
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $812/mo
• Annual: $9,738/yr
• Cap rate: 16.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.13%
• DSCR: 2.56
• 1% rule: 2.21%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#440 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southridge El (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 619 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 26% district-wide (58 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lewisville ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 223 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.2% in Lewisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.