3913 Castro Valley Blvd #6

Castro Valley, CA 94546

$74,500B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,147/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$391
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $1,181/mo
• Annual: $14,171/yr
• Cap rate: 25.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.93%
• DSCR: 4.02
• 1% rule: 2.88%
• Cash to close: $20,860

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $515 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#129 in CA, #4,461 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Castro Valley Unified (suburban): math 60% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #60 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $74k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 1.8% in Castro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.