3913 Castro Valley Blvd #6 · Castro Valley, CA 94546

$74,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Est $60k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS ONE BEDROOM SINGLE WIDE HOME HAS BEEN METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED HAS NEW EXTERIOR PAINT WITH TWO STORAGE SHEDS. AIR COOLED.

Key facts

• Listed 16 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 1.8% in Castro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#129 in CA, #4,461 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Castro Valley Unified (suburban): math 60% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #60 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $515 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $74k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $73,382 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.93%
• DSCR: 4.02
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,168
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3913 Castro Valley Blvd #6	0.00mi	1/1.0	552 (0%)	1mo	$74,000	$134	99
3913 Castro Valley Blvd #78	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	552 (0%)	15mo	$85,000	$154	82
3913 Castro Valley Blvd #5	0.00mi	1/1.0	540 (-2%)	19mo	$59,000	$109	80
3998 Castro Valley Blvd #19	0.17mi	1/1.0	576 (+4%)	10mo	$40,000	$69	76
3998 Castro Valley Blvd Spc 6	0.17mi	1/1.0	588 (+6%)	15mo	$30,000	$51	69
3998 Castro Valley Blvd #16	0.19mi	1/1.0	600 (+9%)	16mo	$18,754	$31	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $63,976
• Equity at exit: $11,108

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.48×
• Total profit: $156,006
• Equity at exit: $6,441

Cash invested: $20,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94546

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,147 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$391
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $1,181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $652

Max offer price $74,500

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,625
• Closing costs: $2,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3958 Castro Valley Blvd Castro Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	43d	1	0.10mi
20673 Forest Ave Unit B Castro Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,750	$3.67	4d	1	0.21mi
20446 Forest Ave Apt 22 Castro Valley, CA	—	1.0	400	$1,625	$4.06	24d	1	0.28mi
20446 Forest Ave Apt 2 Castro Valley, CA	—	1.0	400	$1,625	$4.06	1d	1	0.28mi
20446 Forest Ave Apt 1 Castro Valley, CA	—	1.0	400	$1,625	$4.06	18d	1	0.28mi
22160 Center St Castro Valley, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$2,307	$2.67	4d	6	0.39mi
22302 Center St Castro Valley, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	809	$2,213	$2.74	1d	3	0.49mi
20928 Wilbeam Ave Unit 46 Castro Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	675	$1,895	$2.81	43d	1	0.50mi
2481 Grove Way Castro Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$2,095	$2.96	3d	1	0.64mi
21006 Nunes Ave Unit A Castro Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,600	$3.47	15d	1	0.81mi
20511 Anita Ave Apt 32 Castro Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	525	$1,965	$3.74	21d	1	0.94mi
22294 City Center Dr Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$2,169	$2.13	12d	1	1.15mi
1327 Russell Way Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,295	$3.28	24d	1	1.19mi
20353 Park Way Castro Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	561	$2,145	$3.82	5d	3	1.22mi
19139 Vaughn Ave Castro Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	745	$3,995	$5.36	11d	1	1.27mi
22525 3rd St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$2,110	$2.71	1d	8	1.27mi
19972 Stanton Ave Castro Valley, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	710	$1,895	$2.67	5d	2	1.35mi
19770 Sprague Ct Castro Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,700	$3.86	43d	1	1.37mi
1201 B St Unit 18 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	645	$1,995	$3.09	5d	1	1.40mi
1201 B St Apt 25 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	645	$1,998	$3.10	43d	1	1.40mi
22335 Foothill Blvd Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1160	$3,132	$2.70	1d	42	1.40mi
1321 Terrace Ave Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$2,050	$2.73	43d	1	1.40mi
21701 Foothill Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	751	$2,199	$2.93	17d	6	1.46mi
1250 E St Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$1,795	$4.49	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $74,500 Active
3. 2003-06-23
   soldstatus $30,000 125-char remark

   Show marketing remark (125 chars)

   THIS ONE BEDROOM SINGLE WIDE HOME HAS BEEN METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED HAS NEW EXTERIOR PAINT WITH TWO STORAGE SHEDS. AIR COOLED.

4. 2003-04-22
   listed $35,000 125-char remark

   Show marketing remark (125 chars)

   THIS ONE BEDROOM SINGLE WIDE HOME HAS BEEN METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED HAS NEW EXTERIOR PAINT WITH TWO STORAGE SHEDS. AIR COOLED.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,173
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − Depreciation: −$2,167
• Taxable income: $13,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,314
• After-tax cash flow: $10,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Castro Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607800
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $94,532
• Composite: 59.03/100
• National rank: #959
• State rank: #60 of 517 in CA

Livability — Castro Valley

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #4461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castro Valley, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 59,361
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,855
• Household income: $128,385
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1354.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Asian 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Chinese 14% Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -934.25%
• Current HPI: 334.4167
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.37%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+112.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $74,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-06-23 Sold (MLS) $30,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-04-22 Listed $35,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR