148 Pecan Ln

Fowlkes, TN 38024

$15,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $955/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax + insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $661/mo
• Annual: $7,932/yr
• Cap rate: 59.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 188.87%
• DSCR: 9.40
• 1% rule: 6.37%
• Cash to close: $4,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($955 rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $15k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dyer County (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #16 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holice Powell Elementary (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #191 of 952 statewide, top 22%, 261 students, 0% FRL); Dyer County High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #41 of 332 statewide, top 15%, 1,070 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Dyer County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dyer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $13k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.