148 Pecan Ln · Fowlkes, TN 38024

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1939 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Handyman Special! In south Dyersburg you will this fixer upper found in Fowlkes.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1939

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($955 rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dyer County (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #16 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holice Powell Elementary (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #191 of 952 statewide, top 22%, 261 students, 0% FRL); Dyer County High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #41 of 332 statewide, top 15%, 1,070 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Dyer County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dyer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $13k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 188.87%
• DSCR: 9.40
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
553 Peach Rd	0.25mi	2/2.0	840 (-10%)	10mo	$79,500	$95	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.45×
• Total profit: $39,679
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.14×
• Total profit: $88,797
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38024

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $104/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $118

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-10
   listed $15,000 Active
3. 2000-05-02
   soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $104 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $106 · $9/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$104
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$917
• − Management: −$917
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $8,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,961
• After-tax cash flow: $5,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dyer County
• NCES district ID: 4701050
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,865
• Composite: 33.19/100
• National rank: #5536
• State rank: #16 of 139 in TN

Livability — Fowlkes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fowlkes, TN
• County: Dyer County · 25,952 people
• Metro: Dyersburg, TN
• Population (ZIP): 25,952
• Household income: $57,061
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Dyer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,770 people
• By 2030: 35,863 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 33,989 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 32,124 · -12.6%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -21.9%
• By 2100: 25,745 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 19% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dyer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.7pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+37.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.52%
• Current HPI: 162.1695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dyersburg, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+15.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listed $15,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $104 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.