19304 Mcmullen Hwy SW

Danville, MD 21557

$145,000C

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1924 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $158/mo
• Annual: $1,890/yr
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.66%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (10.0% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#429 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.