19304 Mcmullen Hwy SW · Danville, MD 21557

$145,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1924 0.82 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 5 bed, 1 bath home featuring 3 bedrooms on the main level, with 2 smaller bedrooms that could easily be combined into one larger room by removing the dividing wall. The spacious kitchen offers ample countertop space and cabinetry. Offering a flexible floor plan features a living room and dining room setup or two separate living areas with space for a kitchen table in the kitchen. French doors in the living room lead to the deck, filling the home with natural sunlight and beautiful mountain views. Upstairs you will find 2 additional bedrooms for anyone who likes their space. On the main level you will see an oversized mud/laundry room offering 4 closets for exceptional storag

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1924

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total below-grade area: 576; Above-grade finished area sourced from assessor; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage with additional storage area; Driveway with about 5 spaces; Off-site parking available; Total of around 6 garage and parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private septic tank (sewer); Oil heating fuel; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Detached structure; Not located in a federal flood zone; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Block, permanent foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built year sourced from assessor
• Exterior features: Outbuilding(s); Satellite dish; Garage(s); Shed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating (oil-fired); Ceiling fans for cooling; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Ramp to main level; Basement with outside entrance (unfinished)
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#429 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $130,491 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.66%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $66,556
• Equity at exit: $106,810

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $185,482
• Equity at exit: $208,898

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21557

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $631/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $199	+0% $158	+5% $116	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $106	+0% $158	+5% $209	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $194	base $158	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $155,000 Active 26-char remark
17. 2026-05-05
    historical $155,000 26-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $631 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$475/yr (+$40/mo · 75.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$631
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$130
• After-tax cash flow: $2,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Danville

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #429
• US rank: #24270

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,323

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Asian 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.66%
• Current HPI: 300.4628
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $155,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2011): $631 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.