14431 Aden Rd

Nokesville, VA 20181

$1,300,000F

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 6,606 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,939/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,817
• Tax + insurance: −$1,480
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$827
• Net cashflow: $-5,185/mo
• Annual: $-62,223/yr
• Cap rate: 1.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.09%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.30%
• Cash to close: $364,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $1.30M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-62k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (70.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $394k (69.7% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $384k (70.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#121 in VA, #3,756 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Coles Elementary (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #171 of 1,108 statewide, top 17%, 412 students, 42% FRL); Louise A. Benton Middle (math 53% / reading 81%, grade A-, #103 of 342 statewide, top 31%, 1,384 students, 21% FRL); Charles J. Colgan Sr. High (math 62% / reading 94%, grade A-, #80 of 319 statewide, top 25%, 2,907 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 19% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.09M; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.