14431 Aden Rd · Nokesville, VA 20181

$1,300,000

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 6,606 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2007 10 ac lot Est $1301k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Custom home build by Classic Concept Builders

Key facts

• 10 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ground rent paid annually; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with front entry; Garage door opener; Three garage spaces; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; Private septic tank; No municipal trash service
• Home design: Detached structure; Architectural shingle roof; Combination construction materials; Concrete perimeter foundation; Fee simple ownership; Year of effective remodel 2025; Not in a federal flood zone; 36"+ wide halls and 32"+ wide doors for accessibility
• Construction: Combination construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Detached design; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Patio(s); Backs to trees and wooded, secluded setting; Walkout basement with outside/rear entrance; Partially finished basement (approximately 75% finished)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Cooktop; Six-burner stove; Double oven; Wall oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Gourmet kitchen with island and table space
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the main level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet; Concrete; Luxury vinyl plank; Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms on the upper level; One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom on the main level; Two full bathrooms on the lower level; Six full bathrooms total, one half bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Second kitchen; Soaking tub; Walk-in shower; Breakfast area; Ceiling fans; Chair railings; Entry-level bedroom; Traditional floor plan; Formal dining room; Gourmet kitchen; Kitchen island; Table space in kitchen; Master bath; Recessed lighting; Upgraded countertops; Walk-in closets; Water treatment system; Wood floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry areas on the upper and lower floors; Tankless hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $1.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-62k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (70.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $394k (69.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $384k (70.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#121 in VA, #3,756 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Coles Elementary (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #171 of 1,108 statewide, top 17%, 412 students, 42% FRL); Louise A. Benton Middle (math 53% / reading 81%, grade A-, #103 of 342 statewide, top 31%, 1,384 students, 21% FRL); Charles J. Colgan Sr. High (math 62% / reading 94%, grade A-, #80 of 319 statewide, top 25%, 2,907 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 19% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.09M; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $383,996 (70.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.09%
• DSCR: 0.24
• GRM: 27.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,301,382
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14439 Aden Rd	0.17mi	6/5.5 (+1)	5,704 (-14%)	20mo	$1,125,000	$197	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-541,273
• Equity at exit: $193,834

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.47×
• Total profit: $-898,059
• Equity at exit: $112,400

Cash invested: $364,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20181

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 27.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,817
• Tax from tax record: −$938 /mo · $11,254/yr
• Insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$827
• Net cashflow: $-5,185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,502

Max offer price $383,996

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $325,000
• Closing costs: $39,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    historical $1,300,000
15. 2007-11-16
    soldstatus $1,093,244 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Custom home build by Classic Concept Builders

16. 2007-08-24
    historical
17. 2007-05-16
    soldstatus $300,000
18. 2007-01-03
    listed $1,093,244 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Custom home build by Classic Concept Builders

19. 2007-01-03
    historical 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Custom home build by Classic Concept Builders

20. 2006-05-27
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,254 · $938/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,254 · $938/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,820
• − Property taxes: −$11,254
• − Insurance: −$6,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,781
• − Management: −$3,781
• − Depreciation: −$37,818
• Taxable loss: −$88,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21,286
• After-tax cash flow: $-40,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Nokesville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #3756

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,128

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Armenian 9% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 321.2493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+18.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $1,300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-11-16 Sold (MLS) $1,093,244 MRIS
• 2007-08-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-01-03 Listed $1,093,244 MRIS
• 2006-05-27 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,254 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.