16813 Oconto Ave

Tinley Park, IL 60477

$285,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,214 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,552/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$620
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-99/mo
• Annual: $-1,183/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (10.4% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $255k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#246 in IL, #4,453 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Cons Hsd 230 (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #146 of 620 in IL (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John A Bannes Elem School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #586 of 2,056 statewide, top 31%, 454 students, 0% FRL); Virgil I Grissom Middle School (math 41% / reading 46%, grade D, #101 of 665 statewide, top 16%, 596 students, 0% FRL); Victor J Andrew High School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #147 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 2,259 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $285k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Tinley Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.