4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,200 sqft ·
Built 1969
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 72 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,902/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$235
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$399
Net cashflow
$402/mo
Annual
$4,826/yr
Cap rate
9.22%
Cash-on-cash
10.45%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
1.15%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Aiken Elementary (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #315 of 597 statewide, top 55%, 524 students, 100% FRL); South Aiken High (math 42% / reading 88%, grade B, #85 of 196 statewide, top 45%, 1,356 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Aiken 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 522 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).
Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.1% in Aiken — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-10M5N54KGZBXR7
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29