12931 82nd Ave N

Seminole, FL 33776

$688,000B

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,306 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,010/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,608
• Tax + insurance: −$917
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,312
• Net cashflow: $4,173/mo
• Annual: $50,075/yr
• Cap rate: 13.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.99%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $192,640

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $688k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($50k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $688k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($605k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $605k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#5 in FL, #174 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bauder Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 28% FRL); Seminole High School (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,546 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $499k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $193k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.8% in Seminole — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.