3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
400 sqft ·
Built 1936
· Manufactured
· Active
· 72 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$788/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$209
Tax + insurance
−$27
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$165
Net cashflow
$387/mo
Annual
$4,639/yr
Cap rate
17.92%
Cash-on-cash
41.53%
DSCR
2.85
1% rule
1.98%
Cash to close
$11,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($788 rent vs $40k).
It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#463 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Lawrence County (rural): math 14% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #85 of 129 in AL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29