1651 Darley Ave

Baltimore, MD 21213

$196,000C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · Built 1930 · Townhouse · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $448/mo
• Annual: $5,375/yr
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.79%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $54,880

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $196k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $196k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $242 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 11779% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $196k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,096/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 1868% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.