1651 Darley Ave · Baltimore, MD 21213

$196,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · Townhouse public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1930 1,307 sqft lot $311/sqft · 204% above area Est $169k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking to renovate and hold or a fix a resale this would be great investment for you. Inspection for Buyer's purpose only. Sold as is with no repairs.

Key facts

• Built 1930
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total below-grade finished area approximately 517; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,130; Ownership interest listed as ground rent
• Financial info: Ground rent amount $84 (semi-annually); Property assessed values and tax details not included
• HOA & community: Ground rent payment (semi-annually)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking (free)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (public septic listed); Electric service for cooling; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Flat roof; Ownership via ground rent
• Construction: Brick construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Fully finished basement; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Major renovation/remodel in 2026 (effective year)
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Electric range/oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the upper level; Two bedrooms on the lower level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on upper level, one on lower level); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating and hot water; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floor plan with combination dining/living area; Kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Walk-in shower; Drywall walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located on lower floor/basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $196k).
• Recommended offer: $190k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,096/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 1868% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $242 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 11779% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $196k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,120 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.79%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,580
• List price: $196,000
• Delta: 16.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.57% appreciation · 5.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $22,415
• Equity at exit: $51,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $96,876
• Equity at exit: $57,559

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21213

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,177/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,529

Max offer price $196,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $559	-5% $503	+0% $448	+5% $392	+10% $337
Rent	-10% $282	-5% $365	+0% $448	+5% $531	+10% $613
Rate	-1.0pp $547	-0.5pp $498	base $448	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1607 Hakesley Pl Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	44d	1	0.71mi
2410 E Federal St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	720	$2,200	$3.06	24d	1	0.72mi
231 E North Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	430	$1,200	$2.79	17d	3	0.98mi
1100 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	839	$2,584	$3.08	3d	1	1.09mi
103 E Mt Royal Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,624	$3.09	2d	17	1.20mi
1301 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–3.0	1050	$2,399	$2.28	44d	1	1.25mi
500 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	520	$1,200	$2.31	5d	1	1.43mi
3721 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,603	$1.79	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $196,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $196,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $196,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $196,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $196,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $196,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $196,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $196,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $196,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $196,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $196,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-05-08
    listed $196,000 Active 441-char remark
13. 2026-04-28
    historical
14. 2026-04-17
    price $199,900
15. 2026-04-17
    status Active
16. 2026-04-17
    price $199,901
17. 2026-03-08
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2026-02-16
    price $199,900
19. 2026-01-23
    listed $210,000 Active
20. 2026-01-16
    historical
21. 2025-07-09
    soldstatus $60,000
22. 2025-06-20
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Looking to renovate and hold or a fix a resale this would be great investment for you. Inspection for Buyer's purpose only. Sold as is with no repairs.

23. 2025-05-28
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Looking to renovate and hold or a fix a resale this would be great investment for you. Inspection for Buyer's purpose only. Sold as is with no repairs.

24. 2025-04-20
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Looking to renovate and hold or a fix a resale this would be great investment for you. Inspection for Buyer's purpose only. Sold as is with no repairs.

25. 2025-04-02
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Looking to renovate and hold or a fix a resale this would be great investment for you. Inspection for Buyer's purpose only. Sold as is with no repairs.

26. 2025-03-20
    price $65,490

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Looking to renovate and hold or a fix a resale this would be great investment for you. Inspection for Buyer's purpose only. Sold as is with no repairs.

27. 2025-03-20
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Looking to renovate and hold or a fix a resale this would be great investment for you. Inspection for Buyer's purpose only. Sold as is with no repairs.

28. 2025-02-19
    historical

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Looking to renovate and hold or a fix a resale this would be great investment for you. Inspection for Buyer's purpose only. Sold as is with no repairs.

29. 2024-12-27
    listed $75,200 Active

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Looking to renovate and hold or a fix a resale this would be great investment for you. Inspection for Buyer's purpose only. Sold as is with no repairs.

30. 2007-11-09
    soldstatus $66,640
31. 2007-10-25
    historical
32. 2007-10-25
    listed $66,640
33. 2007-10-11
    soldstatus $66,640
34. 2006-05-31
    soldstatus $397,024

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,657 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$480/yr (+$40/mo · 40.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$1,177
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable income: $2,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$549
• After-tax cash flow: $4,827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 28,058
• Household income: $51,344
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1868.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Current HPI: 427.4453
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-99.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Rental Removed $1,650 BRIGHTMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed for Rent $1,650 BRIGHTMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $196,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $199,901 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-08 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-16 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-20 Sold (MLS) $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-02 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $65,490 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-27 Listed $75,200 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $66,640 Public Records
• 2007-10-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-10-25 Listed $66,640 MRIS
• 2007-10-11 Sold (MLS) $66,640 MRIS
• 2006-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $397,024 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,177 · +196.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.