4 South St

Belfast, NY 14711

$70,000A

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,343/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $378/mo
• Annual: $4,533/yr
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.13%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.92%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#927 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Belfast Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #577 of 755 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.