527 Spruce Circle Cir

Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA 96137

$449,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-1,154/mo
• Annual: $-13,850/yr
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.02%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (45.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (53.7% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (53.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#781 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $449k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Almanor Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.