527 Spruce Circle Cir · Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA 96137

$449,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1980 0.29 ac lot $400/sqft · 47% above area Est $423k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled among towering pines in the highly sought-after Lake Almanor Pines community, this charming mountain retreat offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and location. Just a short stroll to local restaurants and minutes from lake access, you’ll enjoy the best of outdoor living right at your doorstep. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious, thoughtfully designed floor plan highlighted by a large, added-on family room—ideal for gathering with friends and family year-round. Warm, natural wood finishes throughout create an inviting cabin feel while still offering modern updates and conveniences. Meticulously maintained, the home reflects true pri

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Off-street parking; On-street parking; RV/Boat parking/access
• Utilities: Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels (2 stories)
• Construction: Wood siding; Unknown other construction materials; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built on two levels
• Exterior features: Gas grill; Deck; Partial fencing; Shed(s); Satellite dish; Has view; Sloping topography; Cul-de-sac setting; Wooded lot; Sloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Ductless cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Pantry; Beamed ceilings; Skylights; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (45.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (53.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (53.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Almanor Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#781 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $449k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,071 (53.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.02%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 18.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,324
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: 6.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
325 Peninsula Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-5%)	20mo	$420,000	$395	43
516 Firland Way Way	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-14%)	22mo	$293,500	$306	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-56,926
• Equity at exit: $162,157

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-50,105
• Equity at exit: $222,531

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96137

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 18.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-1,154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,542

Max offer price $245,111

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $449,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $449,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $449,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $449,000 Active 1259-char remark
19. 2003-08-06
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,075 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,412 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$22,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,414
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Almanor Peninsula

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #22469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 153.1005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+172.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $449,000 PAR
• 2003-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,075 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.