825 E Ottley Ave Unit E3

Fruita, CO 81521

$75,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 277 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$680
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $409/mo
• Annual: $4,909/yr
• Cap rate: 12.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.38%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 2.71%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#54 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shelledy Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #512 of 966 statewide, top 55%, 387 students, 36% FRL); Fruita Middle School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #164 of 270 statewide, top 61%, 496 students, 32% FRL); Fruita Monument High School (math 38% / reading 62%, grade D+, #95 of 381 statewide, top 25%, 1,304 students, 18% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $75k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.0% in Fruita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.