825 E Ottley Ave Unit E3 · Fruita, CO 81521

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 275 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $89k · 15% under $680/mo HOA · 33% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Totally redone from skirting on up. New insulation & heat tape, new flooring, new roof. It is adorable! Has wheels, can be moved. Lot rent $295/month includes irrigation water. No real estate included. All information subject to change/error. Buyer to verify all info.

Key facts

• Built 1981
• Listed 275 days

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN
• OVER SIZED 2 STORY SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $680 monthly fee; Land is leased

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home (Single wide); Residential single-family use; North-facing; Single-story
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Landscaped lot; Paved, public maintained city street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Simulated wood
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Window coverings; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.0% in Fruita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#54 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shelledy Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #512 of 966 statewide, top 55%, 387 students, 36% FRL); Fruita Middle School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #164 of 270 statewide, top 61%, 496 students, 32% FRL); Fruita Monument High School (math 38% / reading 62%, grade D+, #95 of 381 statewide, top 25%, 1,304 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $75k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.38%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,704
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
825 E Ottley Ave Unit F4	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (+2%)	2mo	$90,000	$96	88
825 E Ottley Ave Unit C2	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	938 (+2%)	4mo	$75,500	$80	78
825 E Ottley Ave Unit A3	0.16mi	3/2.0	952 (+3%)	8mo	$28,500	$30	77
825 E Ottley Ave Unit C12	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+4%)	11mo	$89,000	$93	76
825 E Ottley Ave Unit D2	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-3%)	15mo	$60,000	$67	71
825 E Ottley Ave Unit A8	0.13mi	3/2.0	980 (+6%)	22mo	$70,000	$71	61
1207 Libra Ct	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+4%)	18mo	$240,000	$250	47
1465 S Gemini Cir	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	21mo	$175,000	$189	43
527 Pisces Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+6%)	15mo	$236,000	$241	34
528 Lonnie Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	20mo	$255,000	$241	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $17,913
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $66,102
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81521

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$680
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,517

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $435	+0% $409	+5% $383	+10% $357
Rent	-10% $248	-5% $329	+0% $409	+5% $489	+10% $570
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $428	base $409	+0.5pp $390	+1.0pp $370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
175 Applewood Dr Fruita, CO	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,200	$2.01	14d	1	0.42mi
1158 E Carolina Ave #4 Fruita, CO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,500	$1.44	22d	1	0.88mi
535 W Aspen Ave Fruita, CO	2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,802	$2.15	22d	1	0.89mi
942 Golden Jubilee Dr Fruita, CO	2.0	2.0	850	$2,000	$2.35	14d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $680 · $8,160/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $75,000 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $75,000 Pending 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $75,000 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $75,000 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-01-13
    price $79,900
15. 2025-10-03
    price $89,000
16. 2025-09-11
    listed $95,000 Active
17. 2017-01-30
    soldstatus $22,500 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Totally redone from skirting on up. New insulation & heat tape, new flooring, new roof. It is adorable! Has wheels, can be moved. Lot rent $295/month includes irrigation water. No real estate included. All information subject to change/error. Buyer to verify all info.

18. 2016-12-07
    listed $27,900 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Totally redone from skirting on up. New insulation & heat tape, new flooring, new roof. It is adorable! Has wheels, can be moved. Lot rent $295/month includes irrigation water. No real estate included. All information subject to change/error. Buyer to verify all info.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − HOA: −$8,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $3,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fruita

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #5575

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fruita, CO
• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• City population: 16,613
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 16,613
• Household income: $88,458
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 187.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.55%
• Current HPI: 323.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.71%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+186.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $79,900 GJARA
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $89,000 GJARA
• 2025-09-11 Listed $95,000 GJARA
• 2017-01-30 Sold (MLS) $22,500 GJARA
• 2016-12-07 Listed $27,900 GJARA