514 W Orange St

Lancaster, PA 17603

$457,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,604 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Active · 275 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,397
• Tax + insurance: −$838
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,088
• Net cashflow: $859/mo
• Annual: $10,306/yr
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.05%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $127,960

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $457k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $859 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $286/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $457k).
• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($402k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $402k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#71 in PA, #498 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Lancaster SD (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #500 of 539 in PA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fulton El Sch (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,362 of 1,518 statewide, top 92%, 283 students, 100% FRL); Reynolds Ms (math 6% / reading 31%, grade F, #451 of 512 statewide, top 88%, 527 students, 92% FRL); Mccaskey Campus (math 50% / reading 34%, grade F, #230 of 437 statewide, top 53%, 2,620 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 72% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 302 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $457k implies a 1836% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.0% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,182/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 2557% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.