5830 Robin Hill Dr #41

North Lakeport, CA 95453

$115,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1982 · Land · Active · 476 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $657/mo
• Annual: $7,885/yr
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.49%
• DSCR: 2.09
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $657 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 476 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#808 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Lakeport Unified (town): math 13% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #451 of 517 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $115k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.7% in North Lakeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 476 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.