5830 Robin Hill Dr #41 · North Lakeport, CA 95453

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land · 474 Days on market

Built 1982

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home in Sterling Shores Park. This park features, pool, club house, boat launch, and RV/boat storage. Lake views of Clearlake from the front windows and patios. This home is like new. Built in 1982 but seller has replaced roof, new heating unit, new tankless hot water heater, new range in 2002, new washer in 2003, painted inside in 2002, new flooring through out the house, new awning, and new fridge in 2006. Replaced all the fixtures, counters in bathroom, faucets, toilets, and shower doors. This home is 2 bedrooms 2 bath with over 1200 sq. ft. Carport large enough to park 4 to 6 cars. This is one of the bigger spaces in the park. Senior park. One person must be 55 or older. Park just sold to a non profit company. This should help keep rents down.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Lake views
• Club pool

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LAKE VIEWS
• GARDEN SHED
• SMALL WORKSHOP
• ON DEMAND WATER HEATER
• CLUB POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 0-1 unit per acre lot characteristic; Property has lake rights
• Financial info: Land lease of $832 per month (seller provided); Rent includes water and sewer
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park name: Sterling Shore Estates; Community amenities include watersports, fishing, lake access, biking and rural/mountainous setting; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport parking (4 spaces); Covered parking; 2 uncovered spaces (total 6 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Propane available; Electricity connected (standard service); Public sewer; Private water; Water and sewer included in land lease
• Home design: Mobile home (model 12 0935A) remains on site; Mobile home dimensions approximately 12' x 52'; Turnkey condition; Single-story; Access via paved county road
• Construction: Information sourced from public records
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio (covered); Wood fencing; One shed on property; Lake rights and community fishing access; Views; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Free-standing range / Gas range; Dishwasher; Laminate counters; Tankless and propane water heater listed among kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on ground level; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathrooms with showers and tub/shower combinations
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: High ceilings (9+ feet); Ceiling fan; Sump pump; No interior steps; One-level home; Front door entry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $657 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.7% in North Lakeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#808 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Lakeport Unified (town): math 13% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #451 of 517 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 474 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $115k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 474 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.49%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $23,174
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $73,900
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95453

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $415/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $868

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $722	-5% $690	+0% $657	+5% $625	+10% $592
Rent	-10% $523	-5% $590	+0% $657	+5% $724	+10% $791
Rate	-1.0pp $715	-0.5pp $686	base $657	+0.5pp $627	+1.0pp $597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 474 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 473 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 472 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 471 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 470 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 468 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 467 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 464 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 463 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 462 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 459 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 458 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 457 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 456 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 455 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 454 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    status Active
18. 2026-05-21
    price $115,000
19. 2026-04-29
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-04-15
    price $105,000
21. 2025-11-19
    price $115,000
22. 2025-10-09
    price $120,000
23. 2025-09-02
    status Active
24. 2025-09-01
    historical
25. 2025-06-28
    price $124,900
26. 2025-05-10
    price $140,500
27. 2025-04-14
    price $149,500
28. 2025-04-14
    price $150,000
29. 2025-03-28
    price $170,000
30. 2025-03-01
    listed $180,000 Active
31. 2014-02-20
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Manufactured home in Sterling Shores Park. This park features, pool, club house, boat launch, and RV/boat storage. Lake views of Clearlake from the front windows and patios. This home is like new. Built in 1982 but seller has replaced roof, new heating unit, new tankless hot water heater, new range in 2002, new washer in 2003, painted inside in 2002, new flooring through out the house, new awning, and new fridge in 2006. Replaced all the fixtures, counters in bathroom, faucets, toilets, and shower doors. This home is 2 bedrooms 2 bath with over 1200 sq. ft. Carport large enough to park 4 to 6 cars. This is one of the bigger spaces in the park. Senior park. One person must be 55 or older. Park just sold to a non profit company. This should help keep rents down.

32. 2014-02-03
    status Backup Offers Accepted 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Manufactured home in Sterling Shores Park. This park features, pool, club house, boat launch, and RV/boat storage. Lake views of Clearlake from the front windows and patios. This home is like new. Built in 1982 but seller has replaced roof, new heating unit, new tankless hot water heater, new range in 2002, new washer in 2003, painted inside in 2002, new flooring through out the house, new awning, and new fridge in 2006. Replaced all the fixtures, counters in bathroom, faucets, toilets, and shower doors. This home is 2 bedrooms 2 bath with over 1200 sq. ft. Carport large enough to park 4 to 6 cars. This is one of the bigger spaces in the park. Senior park. One person must be 55 or older. Park just sold to a non profit company. This should help keep rents down.

33. 2014-01-17
    price $39,999 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Manufactured home in Sterling Shores Park. This park features, pool, club house, boat launch, and RV/boat storage. Lake views of Clearlake from the front windows and patios. This home is like new. Built in 1982 but seller has replaced roof, new heating unit, new tankless hot water heater, new range in 2002, new washer in 2003, painted inside in 2002, new flooring through out the house, new awning, and new fridge in 2006. Replaced all the fixtures, counters in bathroom, faucets, toilets, and shower doors. This home is 2 bedrooms 2 bath with over 1200 sq. ft. Carport large enough to park 4 to 6 cars. This is one of the bigger spaces in the park. Senior park. One person must be 55 or older. Park just sold to a non profit company. This should help keep rents down.

34. 2013-11-22
    price $45,000 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Manufactured home in Sterling Shores Park. This park features, pool, club house, boat launch, and RV/boat storage. Lake views of Clearlake from the front windows and patios. This home is like new. Built in 1982 but seller has replaced roof, new heating unit, new tankless hot water heater, new range in 2002, new washer in 2003, painted inside in 2002, new flooring through out the house, new awning, and new fridge in 2006. Replaced all the fixtures, counters in bathroom, faucets, toilets, and shower doors. This home is 2 bedrooms 2 bath with over 1200 sq. ft. Carport large enough to park 4 to 6 cars. This is one of the bigger spaces in the park. Senior park. One person must be 55 or older. Park just sold to a non profit company. This should help keep rents down.

35. 2013-09-18
    listed $48,000 Active 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Manufactured home in Sterling Shores Park. This park features, pool, club house, boat launch, and RV/boat storage. Lake views of Clearlake from the front windows and patios. This home is like new. Built in 1982 but seller has replaced roof, new heating unit, new tankless hot water heater, new range in 2002, new washer in 2003, painted inside in 2002, new flooring through out the house, new awning, and new fridge in 2006. Replaced all the fixtures, counters in bathroom, faucets, toilets, and shower doors. This home is 2 bedrooms 2 bath with over 1200 sq. ft. Carport large enough to park 4 to 6 cars. This is one of the bigger spaces in the park. Senior park. One person must be 55 or older. Park just sold to a non profit company. This should help keep rents down.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $415 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$459/yr (+$38/mo · 110.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$415
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $6,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $6,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeport Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620670
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,332
• Composite: 18.55/100
• National rank: #8912
• State rank: #451 of 517 in CA

Livability — North Lakeport

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #22865

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Lakeport, CA
• County: Lake County · 24,333 people
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 11,741
• Household income: $71,419
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 250.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.01%
• Current HPI: 155.5391
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+139.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $124,900 CRMLS
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $140,500 CRMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $149,500 CRMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $170,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listed $180,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-20 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-03 Pending — CRMLS
• 2014-01-17 Price Changed $39,999 CRMLS
• 2013-11-22 Price Changed $45,000 CRMLS
• 2013-09-18 Listed $48,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $415 · +30.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.