209 Timberlake Dr

McKean, PA 16426

$84,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 193 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,330/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $464/mo
• Annual: $5,563/yr
• Cap rate: 12.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.40%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#731 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• General Mclane SD (rural): math 50% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #85 of 539 in PA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 1.7% in McKean — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.