209 Timberlake Dr · McKean, PA 16426

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 193 Days on market

Built 2026 $117/sqft · 14% below area Est $99k · 14% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * 6 Months of Lot Rent Free with Purchase * * Be the first to own this stunning, brand-new 2026 Beacon Prestige mobile home in the desirable Hillside Estates community of McKean. Enjoy the benefits of the General McLane School District and the convenience of being just minutes from I-79. Excellent Bank Financing Options Available.

Key facts

• Minutes from i-79
• Built 2026
• Listed 192 days

Tags

• HILLSIDE ESTATES COMMUNITY
• GENERAL MCLANE SCHOOL DISTRICT
• MINUTES FROM I-79

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 1.7% in McKean — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#731 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• General Mclane SD (rural): math 50% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #85 of 539 in PA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.40%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,139
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -14.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $15,789
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $51,851
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16426

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $743

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,900 Active 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 184 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 183 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $84,900 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 174 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 173 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    price $89,900 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    * * 6 Months of Lot Rent Free with Purchase * * Be the first to own this stunning, brand-new 2026 Beacon Prestige mobile home in the desirable Hillside Estates community of McKean. Enjoy the benefits of the General McLane School District and the convenience of being just minutes from I-79. Excellent Bank Financing Options Available.

20. 2025-12-08
    listed $93,900 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    * * 6 Months of Lot Rent Free with Purchase * * Be the first to own this stunning, brand-new 2026 Beacon Prestige mobile home in the desirable Hillside Estates community of McKean. Enjoy the benefits of the General McLane School District and the convenience of being just minutes from I-79. Excellent Bank Financing Options Available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $4,478
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $4,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: General Mclane SD
• NCES district ID: 4210650
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,384
• Composite: 49.68/100
• National rank: #1971
• State rank: #85 of 539 in PA

Livability — McKean

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #731
• US rank: #7299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,324

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.32%
• Current HPI: 244.3439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $89,900 GEBOR
• 2025-12-08 Listed $93,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $163 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.