208 E Merced

Avenal, CA 93204

$95,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $196/mo
• Annual: $2,356/yr
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.86%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#565 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Reef-Sunset Unified (town): math 6% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #502 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Avenal Elementary (math 6% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,544 of 1,571 statewide, top 98%, 667 students, 89% FRL); Reef Sunset Middle (math 4% / reading 14%, grade F, #494 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 92% FRL); Avenal High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 786 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools at 90% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 741 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $95k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 1.6% in Avenal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.