208 E Merced · Avenal, CA 93204

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1935 6,250 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

this is a clean property ready to build it was already demolished and clean ready for a new project. originally 3 bedrooms one bath

Key facts

• Clean property
• Ready to build
• 6,250 sq ft lot

Tags

• CLEAN PROPERTY
• READY TO BUILD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public utilities; Electric service: Off
• Home design: Single family residence; Entry level not specified
• Construction: Wood subfloor foundation; Other construction materials; Other roof
• Exterior features: One level; Urban lot setting; No residential solar

Interior

• Bedrooms: Data not provided
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No cooling
• Interior features: No central cooling
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 1.6% in Avenal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#565 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Reef-Sunset Unified (town): math 6% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #502 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Avenal Elementary (math 6% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,544 of 1,571 statewide, top 98%, 667 students, 89% FRL); Reef Sunset Middle (math 4% / reading 14%, grade F, #494 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 92% FRL); Avenal High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 786 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools at 90% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 741 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $95k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.86%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 E Madera St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-1%)	14mo	$225,000	$174	82
301 E Madera St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-1%)	14mo	$225,000	$174	82
104 E San Joaquin St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-5%)	5mo	$289,000	$231	77
104 W Mariposa St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-5%)	5mo	$340,000	$272	71
324 E San Mateo St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-2%)	11mo	$270,000	$209	69
420 E Merced St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (-6%)	13mo	$240,000	$195	64
124 W Merced St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-12%)	8mo	$230,000	$200	60
605 Sonoma Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-7%)	4mo	$300,000	$247	57
740 E Monterey St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-12%)	2mo	$121,000	$105	50
516 E Monterey	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,128 (-14%)	7mo	$265,000	$235	50
429 San Benito St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (-7%)	14mo	$275,000	$224	42
429 San Benito St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (-7%)	14mo	$275,000	$224	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $64,221
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $179,239
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93204

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $671/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $751

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $223	+0% $196	+5% $169	+10% $143
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $157	+0% $196	+5% $236	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $220	base $196	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
909 Grangeville Ave Avenal, CA	3.0	2.0	1686	$1,000	$0.59	15d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-26
    listed $95,000 Active
20. 2024-09-30
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $671 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $722 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$51/yr (+$4/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$671
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$204
• After-tax cash flow: $2,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reef-Sunset Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632270
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $34,148
• Composite: 9.31/100
• National rank: #9857
• State rank: #502 of 517 in CA

Livability — Avenal

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #18579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living C+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avenal, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,441

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,136 people
• By 2030: 145,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 146,017 · -0.8%
• By 2050: 145,239 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 131,479 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 103,967 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 24% White 8% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 23% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.4% · R 60.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -14.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+12.2 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.16%
• Current HPI: 319.6641
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+58.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $95,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2024-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $671 · +632.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.