2651 Long Canyon Rd

Ballard, CA 93460

$3,695,000C-

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,892 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 204 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $35,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19,377
• Tax + insurance: −$3,841
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,350
• Net cashflow: $4,432/mo
• Annual: $53,188/yr
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $1,034,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $3.69M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($53k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.50M (5.3% below list).
• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.25M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.25M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $26k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $111k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,005 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• College Elementary (town): math 50% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #234 of 1,400 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $900k; list at $3.69M implies a 311% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.