2651 Long Canyon Rd · Ballard, CA 93460

$3,695,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,892 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1979 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own a stunning equestrian estate nestled among the gentle foothills of Santa Ynez. This classic ranch-style home, situated on over 10 acres, offers breathtaking views of the vineyards and farms of the Santa Ynez Valley, in the prestigious Oak Trail Estates. The custom-built residence spans nearly 4,000 sq. ft. and features: Four Bedrooms: Each with ensuite baths, including a primary suite with a cozy stone fireplace and direct access to the decks and swimming pool area, enhancing your outdoor living experience. Expansive Great Room: Boasting high ceilings, an open beam structure, and a native stone fireplace, perfect for entertaining or unwinding. Traditional Wrap-Around Porch and Stone Patios: These spaces seamlessly integrate with the outdoors, making them ideal for relaxation and gatherings. Additionally, the property includes an impressive barn complex, a 2-bedroom, 2-bath manager's residence—also featuring a fireplace and beamed ceilings, a detached office, a covered round pen, a 6-stall center aisle barn, a hay barn, and multiple large turnouts with shelters. The riding arena and direct access to riding trails from the property make this an equestrian dream. This estate combines character in design with a quality of construction that invites your creativity, or you can simply enjoy the very private country atmosphere it offers.

Key facts

• Stone patios
• Expansive great room
• Equestrian estate

Tags

• EQUESTRIAN ESTATE
• CUSTOM-BUILT RESIDENCE
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• TRADITIONAL WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• STONE PATIOS
• IMPRESSIVE BARN COMPLEX

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rural setting with wooded, panoramic views; Zoned Other (CLA); Cross street: Roblar Avenue
• HOA & community: Association present; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water system
• Home design: Ranch-style home; Property is an estate/home; Two buildings on the property
• Construction: Raised foundation; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Horse facility; Barn(s); Other outbuildings

Interior

• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Laundry room; Fireplaces in the family room and on the patio
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $3.69M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($53k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.50M (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $3.25M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,005 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• College Elementary (town): math 50% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #234 of 1,400 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $26k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $111k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.25M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $900k; list at $3.69M implies a 311% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,251,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $7,776,216
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3615 Roblar Ave	0.53mi	4/3.5	3,652 (-6%)	23mo	$7,295,000	$1,998	44
3730 Roblar Ave	0.70mi	4/5.5	3,345 (-14%)	5mo	$4,200,000	$1,256	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-317,347
• Equity at exit: $550,937

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $83,524
• Equity at exit: $319,476

Cash invested: $1,034,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93460

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $35,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19,377
• Tax from tax record: −$2,301 /mo · $27,613/yr
• Insurance: −$1,540
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,350
• Net cashflow: $4,432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $29,389

Max offer price $3,695,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,524	-5% $5,478	+0% $4,432	+5% $3,387	+10% $2,341
Rent	-10% $1,667	-5% $3,050	+0% $4,432	+5% $5,815	+10% $7,197
Rate	-1.0pp $6,293	-0.5pp $5,372	base $4,432	+0.5pp $3,475	+1.0pp $2,501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $923,750
• Closing costs: $110,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4145 Roblar Ave Santa Ynez, CA	5.0	6.5	5348	$35,000	$6.54	22d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,695,000 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,695,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,695,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,695,000 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $3,695,000 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,695,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $3,695,000 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,695,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,695,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,695,000 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,695,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,695,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,695,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,695,000 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $3,695,000 Active 185 DOM
16. 2025-11-26
    listed $3,695,000 Active 1381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1381 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own a stunning equestrian estate nestled among the gentle foothills of Santa Ynez. This classic ranch-style home, situated on over 10 acres, offers breathtaking views of the vineyards and farms of the Santa Ynez Valley, in the prestigious Oak Trail Estates. The custom-built residence spans nearly 4,000 sq. ft. and features: Four Bedrooms: Each with ensuite baths, including a primary suite with a cozy stone fireplace and direct access to the decks and swimming pool area, enhancing your outdoor living experience. Expansive Great Room: Boasting high ceilings, an open beam structure, and a native stone fireplace, perfect for entertaining or unwinding. Traditional Wrap-Around Porch and Stone Patios: These spaces seamlessly integrate with the outdoors, making them ideal for relaxation and gatherings. Additionally, the property includes an impressive barn complex, a 2-bedroom, 2-bath manager's residence—also featuring a fireplace and beamed ceilings, a detached office, a covered round pen, a 6-stall center aisle barn, a hay barn, and multiple large turnouts with shelters. The riding arena and direct access to riding trails from the property make this an equestrian dream. This estate combines character in design with a quality of construction that invites your creativity, or you can simply enjoy the very private country atmosphere it offers.

17. 2025-11-26
    listed $3,695,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1381 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own a stunning equestrian estate nestled among the gentle foothills of Santa Ynez. This classic ranch-style home, situated on over 10 acres, offers breathtaking views of the vineyards and farms of the Santa Ynez Valley, in the prestigious Oak Trail Estates. The custom-built residence spans nearly 4,000 sq. ft. and features: Four Bedrooms: Each with ensuite baths, including a primary suite with a cozy stone fireplace and direct access to the decks and swimming pool area, enhancing your outdoor living experience. Expansive Great Room: Boasting high ceilings, an open beam structure, and a native stone fireplace, perfect for entertaining or unwinding. Traditional Wrap-Around Porch and Stone Patios: These spaces seamlessly integrate with the outdoors, making them ideal for relaxation and gatherings. Additionally, the property includes an impressive barn complex, a 2-bedroom, 2-bath manager's residence—also featuring a fireplace and beamed ceilings, a detached office, a covered round pen, a 6-stall center aisle barn, a hay barn, and multiple large turnouts with shelters. The riding arena and direct access to riding trails from the property make this an equestrian dream. This estate combines character in design with a quality of construction that invites your creativity, or you can simply enjoy the very private country atmosphere it offers.

18. 2025-06-04
    historical
19. 2025-06-03
    historical
20. 2024-10-09
    price $3,995,000
21. 2024-10-08
    price $3,995,000
22. 2023-11-30
    listed $4,495,000 Active
23. 2023-11-26
    listed $4,495,000 Active
24. 2017-11-27
    historical
25. 2017-07-14
    price $2,955,000
26. 2017-04-26
    listed $3,700,000 Active
27. 1989-06-22
    soldstatus $900,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $27,613 · $2,301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $28,082 · $2,340/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $420,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$206,977
• − Property taxes: −$27,613
• − Insurance: −$18,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$33,600
• − Management: −$33,600
• − Depreciation: −$107,491
• Taxable loss: −$7,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,862
• After-tax cash flow: $55,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0609330
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,496
• Composite: 54.36/100
• National rank: #2919
• State rank: #234 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Ballard

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1005
• US rank: #24868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.90%
• Current HPI: 322.2953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+310.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-26 Listed $3,695,000 SBMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $3,695,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2024-10-09 Price Changed $3,995,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $3,995,000 SBMLS
• 2023-11-30 Listed $4,495,000 SBMLS
• 2023-11-26 Listed $4,495,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2017-11-27 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2017-07-14 Price Changed $2,955,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2017-04-26 Listed $3,700,000 NSBCRMLS
• 1989-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $900,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $27,613 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.