425 Avenue B NE

Winter Haven, FL 33881

$157,920D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,394/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $68/mo
• Annual: $820/yr
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $44,218

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($820/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jewett School of The Arts (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 679 students, 48% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $158k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.