425 Avenue B NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$157,920

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1920 7,000 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Cute home in a great central location. It has served as a great rental property for 20 years. The back patio has a lot of potential for private outdoor space

Key facts

• Back patio
• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• BACK PATIO
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family (zoned R-3); Lot size about 0.16 acres (approximately 0.16 acre / 50x140); Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Private water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area about 672 sq ft living (960 sq ft building total)
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 140

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($820/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jewett School of The Arts (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 679 students, 48% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $158k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,443 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-22,504
• Equity at exit: $23,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-19,095
• Equity at exit: $13,654

Cash invested: $44,218 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,672/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,308

Max offer price $157,920

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $113	+0% $68	+5% $24	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $13	+0% $68	+5% $123	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $109	base $68	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,480
• Closing costs: $4,738
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
514 Avenue C NE Unit 4 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	468	$1,150	$2.46	25d	1	0.12mi
136 Avenue C NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,099	$1.47	25d	1	0.22mi
209 Avenue B SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,500	$2.08	16d	1	0.28mi
1016 E Lake Silver Dr NE Apt 4 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,450	$2.16	25d	1	0.55mi
200 Avenue C SW Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,950	$2.29	5d	12	0.57mi
301 Avenue B SW Unit 4 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	25d	1	0.58mi
265 East St Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$2,250	$2.97	4d	41	0.69mi
534 Avenue H SE Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	555	$875	$1.58	5d	1	0.72mi
720 6th St NW Unit 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$700	$0.95	25d	1	0.74mi
720 6th St NW Unit 1 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$750	$1.01	25d	1	0.74mi
658 Avenue B NW Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	440	$1,095	$2.49	23d	1	0.76mi
222 7th St NW Unit 2 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,600	$2.67	25d	1	0.78mi
669 Avenue B NW Apt 1 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	595	$1,400	$2.35	25d	1	0.79mi
669 Avenue B NW Unit 10 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	582	$1,295	$2.23	23d	1	0.79mi
669 Avenue B NW Unit 4 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	582	$1,195	$2.05	23d	1	0.79mi
955 6th St SE #5 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,190	$2.16	25d	1	0.82mi
955 6th St SE #10 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,145	$1.76	25d	1	0.82mi
955 6th St SE #1 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,075	$1.95	25d	1	0.82mi
955 6th St SE #9 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,175	$2.14	5d	1	0.82mi
310 Farnol St SW Unit 3 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	456	$900	$1.97	16d	1	0.86mi
710 Avenue C SW Unit 4A Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	680	$1,150	$1.69	25d	1	0.92mi
1209 6th St SE Apt 3 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	538	$925	$1.72	16d	1	1.04mi
1150 3rd St SW Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	587	$1,750	$2.98	23d	12	1.06mi
1730 Broxey Ct NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	25d	1	1.20mi
1756 2nd St NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	626	$1,600	$2.56	25d	1	1.20mi
1800 3rd Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	714	$1,400	$1.96	25d	1	1.46mi
1800 3rd Ct SE Apt E Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	714	$1,400	$1.96	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $157,920 Active
3. 2006-07-13
   soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,672 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,672 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,846
• − Property taxes: −$1,672
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$4,594
• Taxable loss: −$1,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$443
• After-tax cash flow: $1,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+79.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $157,920 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,672 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.