4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,580 sqft ·
Built 2017
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 39 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,508/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$874
Tax + insurance
−$442
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$317
Net cashflow
$-125/mo
Annual
$-1,497/yr
Cap rate
5.39%
Cash-on-cash
-3.21%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$46,690
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (13.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (9.5% below list).
It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hay Branch El (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 602 students, 75% FRL); Rancier Middle (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 722 students, 81% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 47% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-13CJPYC14CN1KA
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29