22111 Elizabeth Ln

Phoenix Lake, CA 95370

$206,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,338 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,658/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,083
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $636/mo
• Annual: $7,627/yr
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $57,820

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $206k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,105 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.6% in Phoenix Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.