22111 Elizabeth Ln · Phoenix Lake, CA 95370

$206,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,338 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2006 0.64 ac lot Est $344k · 40% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer Opportunity on . 64 Acres! Private 3BD/2BA manufactured home offering 1,338 sq ft of living space in a beautiful tree-studded Sonora setting. Features include vaulted ceilings, wood-burning fireplace, spacious kitchen, and detached 624 sq ft garage. Situated on approximately . 64 acres with mature oaks and plenty of room for hobbies, storage, gardening, or outdoor enjoyment. Home needs repairs and updating but offers tremendous potential for investors, contractors, or buyers seeking sweat equity. Peaceful location with country charm and room to make it your own.

Key facts

• Tree-studded setting
• Mature oaks
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE MANUFACTURED HOME
• TREE-STUDDED SETTING
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• MATURE OAKS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 covered spaces; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Built in 2006
• Construction: Shingle roof; Lap skirt (mobile home)
• Exterior features: Front yard; Rear porch; Secluded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Microwave; Free‑standing range / oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main entry / street level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: No additional rooms; One freestanding fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; 220‑volt outlet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $206k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.6% in Phoenix Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,105 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,866
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21881 Phoenix Lake Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	2mo	$360,000	$257	68
21931 Glenwood Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+6%)	1mo	$351,000	$248	67
22192 Crystal Falls Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+3%)	11mo	$369,000	$269	59
22016 Phoenix Lake Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	14mo	$430,000	$358	58
16853 E Meadow Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	14mo	$336,500	$234	55
16652 Sallander	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,482 (+11%)	1mo	$310,000	$209	50
16605 Creekside	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+5%)	22mo	$380,000	$271	48
21762 Crystal Falls West	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-4%)	21mo	$315,000	$245	42
21692 Bellview Crk	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	24mo	$485,000	$326	31
16679 Sallander	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	20mo	$325,000	$217	30
16577 Creekside Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,184 (-12%)	21mo	$328,500	$277	29
16538 Creekside	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,498 (+12%)	22mo	$320,000	$214	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $7,084
• Equity at exit: $30,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $58,552
• Equity at exit: $17,854

Cash invested: $57,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,083
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,548/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,854

Max offer price $206,500

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $753	-5% $694	+0% $636	+5% $577	+10% $519
Rent	-10% $426	-5% $531	+0% $636	+5% $741	+10% $846
Rate	-1.0pp $740	-0.5pp $688	base $636	+0.5pp $582	+1.0pp $528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,625
• Closing costs: $6,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21593 Crystal Falls Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.94mi
19011 Middle Camp Rd Twain Harte, CA	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,295	$1.45	14d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $206,500 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $206,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $206,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $206,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $206,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $206,500 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $206,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $206,500 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 574-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $206,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,548 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,548 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,567
• − Property taxes: −$3,548
• − Insurance: −$1,032
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,552
• − Management: −$2,552
• − Depreciation: −$6,007
• Taxable income: $4,643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,114
• After-tax cash flow: $6,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Curtis Creek Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0610320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,986
• Composite: 29.96/100
• National rank: #6372
• State rank: #278 of 517 in CA

Livability — Phoenix Lake

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1105
• US rank: #25551

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-35.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $206,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $234,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $246,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $247,500 CRMLS
• 2022-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,548 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.