3821 Molera Beach St

Haines City, FL 33837

$393,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax + insurance: −$657
• HOA: −$49
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-648/mo
• Annual: $-7,775/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $110,317

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $394k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-648 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (31.8% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $269k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horizons Elementary School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,468 students, 42% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.