3821 Molera Beach St · Haines City, FL 33837

$393,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · Land · 71 Days on market

Built 2026 4,356 sqft lot $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to The Cascades, located in Haines City. Cascades is the perfect community to call home with its Beautiful Florida Lifestyle and Resort Amenities. Let me Introduce you to the Robie this 2447 Sqft. Block on Block 5 Bed 3 Bath home that is just to die for. This home provides Luxury Vinyl tile in all the wet areas, living and dining rooms and Quartz Counter tops in the Kitchen and both Bathrooms. The Kitchen has a Walk in Pantry and Stainless Steel Whirlpool Appliances Including a Stove, Vented Microwave, Dishwasher and Refrigerator, and it also includes a Washer and Dryer. You have a Spare Bathroom and Bedroom Downstairs and Upstairs you have 3 spacious Bedrooms an

Key facts

• Luxury vinyl tile
• Large walk-in closet
• Quartz counter tops

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL TILE
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MASSIVE OWNERS SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,366
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Prime Community Management; Association fees required: $147 quarterly (equivalent $49/month); Community amenities include pool, playground, sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion Feb 19, 2026); Two stories; East-facing entry
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: D.R. Horton (Model: Robie); Builder license CBC1265174; Under construction condition
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Level, private lot; Asphalt paved road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric, Heat Pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan with living room/dining room combo; Stone counters; Thermostat; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $394k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-648 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horizons Elementary School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,468 students, 42% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $268,847 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-112,916
• Equity at exit: $58,745

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-181,621
• Equity at exit: $34,065

Cash invested: $110,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$492 /mo · $5,910/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,509

Max offer price $300,240

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,498
• Closing costs: $11,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3294 Partington Blvd Unit 3294 Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,150	$1.29	3d	1	0.12mi
2732 Gentle Rain Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2120	$2,800	$1.32	23d	1	0.32mi
687 Park Place Blvd Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,399	$0.98	23d	1	0.39mi
605 Park Place Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,400	$1.47	23d	1	0.55mi
3676 Rolling Ridge Bnd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	18d	1	0.56mi
824 Horsetail Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	14d	1	0.58mi
1713 White Water Ct Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1932	$2,350	$1.22	23d	1	0.65mi
188 Holly Village Dr Unit 188 Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1620	$2,000	$1.23	3d	1	0.68mi
1449 Cumberland Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,550	$1.36	3d	1	0.68mi
2043 Punch Bowl Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,250	$1.17	14d	1	0.76mi
5423 Meadow Walk Dr Unit Na Davenport, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$3,150	$1.28	23d	1	0.97mi
160 Eagleview Loop Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2522	$4,200	$1.67	23d	1	1.10mi
3303 Massee Rd Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2500	$3,500	$1.40	23d	1	1.19mi
405 Noble Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,330	$1.25	23d	1	1.21mi
1055 Andean Ln Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,551	$1.04	3d	1	1.30mi
182 Canary Island Cir Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1704	$2,295	$1.35	14d	1	1.32mi
402 Sunset View Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1825	$2,365	$1.30	14d	1	1.37mi
497 Noble Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1989	$2,300	$1.16	23d	1	1.42mi
915 Knollwood Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1863	$2,400	$1.29	23d	1	1.43mi
1246 Red Hill Rd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,280	$1.22	3d	1	1.45mi
211 Boydfield Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1877	$2,150	$1.15	2d	1	1.47mi
203 Bella Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,205	$1.18	3d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   status Active
3. 2026-04-30
   price $393,990
4. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-31
   price $388,990
6. 2026-03-09
   status Active
7. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
8. 2025-12-17
   listed $385,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,070
• − Property taxes: −$5,910
• − Insurance: −$1,970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,581
• − Management: −$2,581
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$11,462
• Taxable loss: −$14,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,576
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $393,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $388,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed $385,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid