744 Choctaw Dr

Madisonville, KY 42431

$154,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 291 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $10/mo
• Annual: $121/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($121/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (24.1% below list).
• It's been on market 291 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#132 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Broadway Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 358 students, 60% FRL); Browning Springs Middle School (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 499 students, 63% FRL); Hopkins County Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 774 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Madisonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 291 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.