744 Choctaw Dr · Madisonville, KY 42431

$154,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 291 Days on market

Built 2000 1.00 ac lot Est $170k · 9% under ↓ 38% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country Living ? Just Outside Chickasaw Subdivision! Permanently attached for FHA guidelines! Enjoy peace and privacy with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide home on a permanent foundation located outside city limits Features include an open floor plan, hardwood floors, spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets, and both front and back porches perfect for relaxing. Large fenced yard ideal for kids, pets, or gardening. Private access from Moreland Ave. Home will be separated from the 7.48 Acres and the remainder will be for sale separately.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• 7 acres
• Fenced yard

Tags

• 7 ACRES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• FENCED YARD
• PRIVATE ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($121/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Madisonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#132 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 291 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,590 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 291 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,352
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1062 Princeton Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+0%)	2mo	$210,900	$155	70
1001 Arrowhead Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+12%)	0mo	$165,000	$109	67
840 Hiawatha Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	5mo	$149,000	$119	58
612 Cherokee St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-8%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	58
665 Echo Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+6%)	0mo	$173,363	$121	56
617 Seminole Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,247 (-8%)	8mo	$145,000	$116	56
751 Boone Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-10%)	1mo	$162,000	$134	56
715 Princeton Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+2%)	9mo	$220,000	$159	55
607 Seminole Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-10%)	4mo	$153,000	$126	54
822 Jefferson Davis	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	8mo	$138,500	$120	45
611 Princeton Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	14mo	$225,000	$156	43
501 Richmond Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	12mo	$180,000	$124	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-24,533
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-20,842
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42431

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $54	+0% $10	+5% $-34	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-36	+0% $10	+5% $57	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $49	base $10	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 291 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 290 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 289 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,900 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $154,900 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $154,900 Active 284 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $154,900 Active 283 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $154,900 Active 282 DOM
9. 2026-04-02
   status Active
10. 2026-02-27
    status Pending
11. 2026-02-19
    price $154,900
12. 2025-07-18
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,332 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$828/yr (+$69/mo · 164.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,129
• − Management: −$1,129
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$2,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$626
• After-tax cash flow: $747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopkins County
• NCES district ID: 2102860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $42,436
• Composite: 29.56/100
• National rank: #6488
• State rank: #65 of 165 in KY

Livability — Madisonville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #6200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madisonville, KY
• City population: 27,095
• Population (ZIP): 27,095

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.52%
• Current HPI: 220.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-38.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Relisted — MHCBOR
• 2026-02-27 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $154,900 MHCBOR
• 2025-07-18 Listed $249,900 MHCBOR

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $504 · +46.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.