10223 Kirkglen Dr

Houston, TX 77089

$212,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,980/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax + insurance: −$555
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-128/mo
• Annual: $-1,532/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $59,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (6.6% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Meador El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 467 students, 92% FRL); Morris Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 703 students, 86% FRL); Pasadena H S (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,221 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 71% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?