10223 Kirkglen Dr · Houston, TX 77089

$212,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1970 7,148 sqft lot $119/sqft · 13% below area Est $243k · 13% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the established Kirkwood South community is a true opportunity—whether you're looking to create your dream space or secure your next investment. Ideally located near Beamer & Beltway 8, you’ll enjoy easy access to shopping, dining, and major commuting routes. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room complete with a brick fireplace, perfect for gathering and relaxing. The open-concept kitchen flows into the family room, offering a functional layout with great potential for modern updates. A formal living area adds flexibility—ideal for a home office, second sitting area, or playroom. Step outside to a covered back patio, perfect

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Open-concept kitchen
• Double-wide driveway

Tags

• KIRKWOOD SOUTH COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• DOUBLE-WIDE DRIVEWAY
• BRICK FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Crest Management; Annual association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry level
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1970; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x12); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 12x11)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combo; Pantry; Ceiling fans; Gas fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Meador El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 467 students, 92% FRL); Morris Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 703 students, 86% FRL); Pasadena H S (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,221 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 71% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,805 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,019
• List price: $212,000
• Delta: -12.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10302 Kirkdale Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,738 (-3%)	8mo	$244,900	$141	85
10819 Sageriver Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,780 (-0%)	1mo	$239,000	$134	77
10511 Kirklane Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,698 (-5%)	4mo	$289,999	$171	75
10511 Sagepine Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+4%)	1mo	$154,300	$83	74
11414 Newton St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,742 (-2%)	1mo	$245,000	$141	64
11026 Sageview Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,906 (+7%)	4mo	$179,900	$94	53
10519 Sagepark Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,704 (-4%)	3mo	$235,000	$138	52
10518 Sagetree Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (+15%)	8mo	$295,000	$144	51
11214 Sagehaven Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,949 (+9%)	2mo	$287,000	$147	48
11123 Sageview Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-8%)	6mo	$245,000	$150	46
10610 Sagepark Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,011 (+13%)	1mo	$239,500	$119	44
11611 Sagehollow Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,040 (+14%)	1mo	$285,000	$140	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-41,952
• Equity at exit: $31,610

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-43,117
• Equity at exit: $18,330

Cash invested: $59,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77089

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax from tax record: −$467 /mo · $5,605/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $187,805

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-77	+0% $-137	+5% $-197	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-215	+0% $-137	+5% $-59	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-83	base $-137	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,000
• Closing costs: $6,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11666 Gulf Pointe Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$2,101	$1.86	1d	26	0.50mi
11144 Fuqua St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$1,959	$1.84	12d	24	0.51mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,992	$1.46	20d	1	0.53mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,024	$1.48	1d	1	0.57mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 11914 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,035	$1.49	45d	1	0.57mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,064	$1.51	12d	1	0.57mi
10819 Sagewind Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,966	$1.30	7d	1	0.80mi
11203 Sagehill Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,900	$1.08	7d	1	0.84mi
10418 Sagemeadow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1429	$1,950	$1.36	45d	1	0.93mi
11438 Brook Meadow Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	24d	1	1.01mi
11511 Grapewood Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,800	$1.13	5d	1	1.13mi
9122 Southbluff Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,000	$1.05	45d	1	1.16mi
12516 S Green Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,600	$1.24	45d	1	1.21mi
10010 Sagecanyon Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	45d	1	1.29mi
10606 Kirkwren Dr Unit 1029082P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$15,665	$9.71	26d	1	1.39mi
10606 Kirkwren Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1618	$8,750	$5.41	24d	1	1.39mi
9610 Foredale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,625	$0.89	5d	1	1.39mi
10123 Clearwick St Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,650	$1.31	45d	1	1.42mi
10026 Gil Jr Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,100	$0.93	1d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 912-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 912-char remark
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $212,000 Active 912-char remark
4. 1989-12-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,605 · $467/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,605 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,875
• − Property taxes: −$5,605
• − Insurance: −$1,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,167
• Taxable loss: −$5,164
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $-404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,741
• Household income: $88,140
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22% White 19% Asian 17% Black 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 33% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.31%
• Current HPI: 249.5438
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $212,000 HARMLS
• 1989-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,605 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.